According to recent reports, OpenAI anticipates a significant transformation in its user base dynamics. The company projects that its upcoming, more affordable ad-supported subscription tier will not only attract a substantial number of new users but also prompt tens of millions of existing paid subscribers to downgrade.
Despite this internal shift, OpenAI remains bullish on overall user growth. It expects its total consumer subscribers to more than double this year, reaching 122 million. By 2030, this figure is projected to further escalate to 306 million.
However, this growth will not be evenly distributed across its offerings. The flagship monthly subscription, ChatGPT Plus, is forecast to see an 80% reduction in its subscriber count this year, dropping to approximately 9 million users. Conversely, the most expensive Pro tier is expected to double its user base, though it will still constitute less than 1% of the total user population.
This forecast underscores OpenAI's strategy to broaden its user base through a diversified subscription model, particularly leveraging a freemium approach, while also acknowledging the varying price sensitivities within its diverse user segments.